News: Gamasutra’s September Analysis

Gamasutra’s Matt Matthews has put up his regular analysis of the figures. I’ll link to it by page (which are essentially detailed enough for individual articles) because there’s a lot in there, so feel free to pick and choose:

• Page One – Distribution and average sale price ($100) of The Beatles: Rock Band.
• Page Two – A look at how the 360 has emerged as the dominant platform for music games (last year the Wii was equal/bigger, suggesting Wii gamers are less likely to buy annual updates). Also a look at how Guitar Hero 5 sold less than TB:RB, but as a series has seen a lower revenue drop than Rock Band (because of RB’s expensive instruments, which most people have now).
• Page Three – Primarily a PS3 one, revealing just how readily people have snapped up the $300 system, while the 360′s price cut didn’t affect the average price at all, and seems to make $300 the real sweet spot. Apparently, the PS3 “is currently 450,000 units behind Microsoft’s system [for 2009] and will have to outsell its rival by around 35,000 units per week through the end of the year just to pull even”. With the price cut alone it’s already matched the rate of the 360′s 2007 price cut and Halo 3 launch though.
• Page Four – The Wii and 360′s tie ratios (number of software divided by hardware sold) went up, while the PS3′s stayed constant. It’s normal for it to decrease when the install base increases rapidly, as consoles bought with a game or two drag it down, so it might dip for a while. There are also the lifetime software sales for each console in here (360 is ahead, suggesting the Wii has slowed). The PS3′s rate of sales is higher than the Wii’s but the installed base is smaller, so the overall number is lower, but both the 360 and PS3 are increasing their sales rate while the Wii is flat.
• Page Five – A look at CoD:WaW’s DLC and how it has technically increased the average money Activision make from each copy of WaW sold, essentially giving WaW an average price of $65. There are some estimates and assumptions in there, but the theory is sound.
• Page Six – This is just a look at what they’ll be looking out for in November (continued PS3 sales, UC2, ODST, Forza, the PSP Go, and whether the industry really is on the up again).

Analysis – June 2009: Software (System/Publishers)

In this analysis we take a look at the top ten and see how each unit sold divides up amongst the various companies involved.  As this only looks at the top ten chart it doesn’t really reflect the industry’s results as a whole – a publisher with one hundred games selling 50,000 would sell more units overall than a publisher with one game that sells 250,000, but only the latter makes the top ten – so is purely just a little look at the games reaching the very top of the chart.

Analysis – June 2009: Software (Chart Changes)

In this analysis we take a look at all the changes to the chart; what’s in, what’s out, and what is managing to keep its place in the top ten.

The Top 10

The Wii and 360 dominate the top ten this month with four games each, while the PS3 takes the other two spots.  This is the first time this year that there has not been a single DS game in the top ten.

Analysis: June 2009 – Hardware (Sony)

As the video game industry (and probably a large part of Sony’s core potential consumers) await the relaunch of the PSP and either a relaunch or price cut for the PS3, Sony’s consoles had another slow month.  Sony systems did account for 26% of all units sold in June though, and there were four games for Sony platforms in the top 20 (all PS3 games).

As mentioned on this blog last month, June 2008 was a good month for Sony’s consoles, and as such the year-on-year comparisons for June are quite harsh:

Analysis: June 2009 – Hardware (Microsoft)

Microsoft’s Xbox 360 was the only console to show year-on-year growth in June, and 360 games held the top two spots of the chart (in addition to having another four games in the top 20), so there were several reasons for them to be pleased with this month’s results.

Analysis: June 2009 – Hardware (Nintendo)

Nintendo were still very much on top in June.  Ten of the games in the NPD top 20 software chart were for Nintendo systems, including two third-party titles in the third and fourth places, which should help with the perception that third-parties can’t succeed on Nintendo systems.

Nintendo also dominated the hardware charts again, although this was mostly thanks to the DS, as Wii sales were down by quite a significant amount year-on-year:

Analysis – June 2009: Hardware (General)

Last year, June was another good month for the games industry.  With a number of releases selling well (Metal Gear Solid 4 achieved one million sales with bundles, and LEGO Indiana Jones: The Original Adventures also sold over a million across all versions), sales totalled $1.69 billion.  With sales of $1.17 billion (a 30% decline), June 2009 again compares badly with last year, and according to the NPD Group’s Anita Frazier has seen the largest year-on-year decline since September 2000.

Frazier also suggests that this could be the first month to really show some signs of the industry being affected by the economic downturn.

Analysis – May 2009: Software

The Chart:

1. UFC 2009 Undisputed (THQ, Xbox 360) – 679,600
2. Wii Fit (Nintendo, Wii) – 352,800
3. EA Sports Active (Electronic Arts, Wii) – 345,800
4. UFC 2009 Undisputed (THQ,  PS3) – 334,400
5. inFamous (Sony, PS3) – 175,900
6. Pokémon Platinum (Nintendo, DS) – 168,900
7. Mario Kart (Nintendo, Wii) – 158,300
8. Punch Out!! (Nintendo, Wii) – 156,900
9. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Activision, Xbox 360) – 120,700
10. Wii Play (Nintendo, Wii) – 109,800

Familiar Faces

The only games returning from April are in fact the games that have all but taken up permanent positions in the chart.  Wii Fit still sits comfortably near the top, while Mario Kart Wii takes one of its regular spot near the middle.  Wii Play takes its lowest position so far this year at tenth place, while Pokémon Platinum is at sixth place, its lowest point in the chart since its release two months ago.

Analysis – May 2009: Hardware

Once again the video game industry finds itself looking bad when compared to the same month last year, thanks to a more muted software line-up.  Last May sales were riding high on the back of continued sales of GTAIV and Mario Kart Wii, as well as healthy sales from the freshly released Wii Fit, building up an impressive sales total of $1.12 billion.  This month saw sales of $863.3 million, and according to NPD’s Anita Frazier is the first month sales have dropped below one billion since August 2007.

(click for a larger image)

Analyst Analysis – April ’09

Continuing our analysis of the NPD analysts, we’re going to take a look at the NPD predictions of Wedbush Morgan‘s Michael Pachter and The EEDAR Group for April 2009 and how they match up (or not) with the actual figures.